Why Tax Cut Bonuses Ring False

Every once in a while, when a baseball player hits one out of the park at an away game, the fan who catches the ball throws it back on the field.  Why celebrate the opponent’s achievement? As rebukes go, it’s not subtle. Sometimes I wonder if the rank and file…

The One Man Who Could Send Oil To $100

The future of North Africa’s leading oil and gas producer Libya is once again under threat. International media reports that Libya’s strongman General Khalifa Haftar, leader of the LNA, the largest and strongest military power in the country, has had a stroke. Libyan and Arab news sites stumble over each…

Residential Construction Is Slowly Returning To Normalcy

Every month I analyze the Census data for residential construction (permits, starts and construction completions). This past month, the headline residential building permits improved and construction completions slowed. But from time to time, we need to stand back from the monthly fluctuations and take a look at the

At cycle turn, Fed can follow two possible paths

In mid December we discussed how a new cyclical phase was likely during 2018 one that would provide fresh trading themes with persistence enough to enable profitable momentum oriented expressions A prerequisite to that new phase was a cyclical turning point replete with friction

MS, USB, ABT & TXT Leads Q1 Earnings

Triple digit gains in regular day Tuesday trading in both the Dow and Nasdaq were bolstered by a number of different things strong housing starts and a lack of relative geopolitical tension early this week among them but nothing so influential as a very strong Q1 earnings season We are

My Letter To Shareholders From BlackRock's 2017 Annual Report

By Larry Fink ByLarry Fink My earliest lessons on the importance of investing came from my parents My father owned a small business a shoe store and my mother taught English at a local university They earned a solid income and their hard work created many opportunities for us but

My Letter To Shareholders From BlackRock's 2017 Annual Report

By Larry Fink ByLarry Fink My earliest lessons on the importance of investing came from my parents My father owned a small business a shoe store and my mother taught English at a local university They earned a solid income and their hard work created many opportunities for us but

FX: Cable Rally Continues

USDJPY takes out 107.50 Nikkei 0.55% Dax 0.47% Oil $67/bbl Gold $1341/oz. Bitcoin $8107 Europe and Asia: EUR GE CPI 0.4% vs. 0.4% North America: USD U of M 9:45 The pound continued its winning ways in early London session trade rising to within a whisker of the 1.4300 level…

Consumer Credit Slows – Will The Economy Slow Too?

I have been saying for years that the rate of growth of consumer credit is not sustainable in the long term. Has the rate of growth begun to slow? [xxxmore] The short answer is that it is too early to tell – but it does appear consumer credit is slowing.…

Are Markets Back On Track?

Yesterday after another big upswing and a late day swoon we saw more subdued green arrows at the market close on our major indexes marking a throwback of sorts to a couple years earlier in this 9 year bull market double digit gains on 20 50 basis point percentage growth…

What Is A Trade War? What Investors Need To Know

In the Trump era, traders and investors have become increasingly familiar with the phrase “Trade War”. As tensions and rhetoric escalate between the United States and China, now seems the appropriate time to define exactly what a trade war is, so that we may understand the implications of a trade…

Markets Volatile: What's In Store For Investors?

Pre markets are clawing back from another big down leg to close out the trading week Friday where all major indexes fell in excess of another 2 Fears of more surprise developments in a burgeoning trade war with China built a significant part of the wall of worry As of…

Markets Volatile: What's In Store For Investors?

Pre markets are clawing back from another big down leg to close out the trading week Friday where all major indexes fell in excess of another 2 Fears of more surprise developments in a burgeoning trade war with China built a significant part of the wall of worry As of…

Job Additions Weaken In March

After a new jobs extravaganza last month revised up from 313K originally reported in February to 326K this morning s March Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS non farm payroll report saw just 103K new jobs This with long term jobs gains month over month for most of the past couple…

Trump Follies Foil The Dollar, But Not For Too Long

Market Drivers  April 06, 2018 Trump Threatens more tarrifs USDJPY holds 107.00 Nikkei 0.11% Dax 1.63% Oil $63/bbl Gold $1328/oz. Bitcoin $6800 Europe and Asia: No Data North America USD NFP 8:30 CAD Labor Employment 8:30 The typically sleepy pre-NFP session was rocked by news that Trump

Trade Trumps Jobs

Trade and equity market volatility, which are not completely separate, continue to dominate investors’ interest.   Many had come around to accept that while trade tensions were running high, it was likely to be mostly posturing.  This conclusion may have helped lift the S&P 500 around 3% over the past three

Are USA Based Multinationals Destined To Do Poorly In Asia?

I am always sensitive to business overhead – the lower you drive overhead, theorically the higher your profit. Overhead costs are expenses associated with running a business and not DIRECTLY related to producing a product or service. A simple criteria of overhead is costs that are fixed whether one produces…

A Motley Start to 2018: Reviewing The First Quarter

By Ron Surz Ron@PPCA-Inc.com , Originator of Age Sage With a few exceptions, most asset classes had small losses in the first quarter. In the U.S. stock market value stocks lost value while growth stocks grew. Growth stocks also led in foreign stock markets, and Latin America was the best…

Futures Up Despite Trade War Fears

If 2018 has thus far been the year of the stock market roller coaster then Wednesday was its picture perfect microcosm a pre market fallout of 550 on the Dow and big drops in the S amp P 500 and the Nasdaq as well due to articulation on trade tariff…

E-invoicing Adoption: What the U.S. Can Learn From Latin America

By Diego Caicedo , Co-Founder & CEO of Portal Finance Electronic invoicing, or e-invoicing, is on the rise around the world as governments and businesses realize its many undeniable benefits. E-invoicing not only cuts down on operational costs by expediting the invoicing process, but it also helps cut down on

U.S.-China Trade Fears Ail Markets

Concerns regarding U S trade with China and the progressing development of what this scenario looks like is sending market futures plummeting again ahead of the opening bell Following President Trump s latest announcement of tariffs hitting goods coming into the U S from China the Red

Apolitical Analysis Suggests Tariffs And Retaliation Will Disrupt, But Not For Long

I believe passionately and have said many times before that allowing one’s political biases to influence your trading and investing decisions, or your analysis on which they are based, is foolish in the extreme. If you read and watch the commentary on the current tariff situation, it is clear that…

Investors Reward Big Oil's Frugality

Belt-tightening has been the policy of necessity in the oil industry over the past three years, and even the price recovery that began at the end of 2016 did not steer oil majors completely off their new frugal course. Shareholders, it seems, are more than happy about it. It might…

Trade Specificities Rattle Markets

Late yesterday, the US announced that specific tariffs and goods that would be targeted for intellectual property violations.   China had warned of a commensurate response and earlier today made its announcement.  This sent reverberations through the capital markets, driving down equities, corn and soybean prices

Volatility Remains With Us

This week started with a big sell off Monday including a 3 drop in the Dow midday From there we saw some value buying but it s clear volatility remains with us in the present day markets We would be hard pressed to blame anywhere but the U S indexes…